Kenya's remittance recovery hinges on one thing: the Gulf

What happened. The Central Bank of Kenya projects diaspora remittances to grow 4% to $5.24 billion in 2026, rebounding from a slow 1.9% in 2025. The drag was the Gulf: inflows from Saudi Arabia fell about 25% after Riyadh replaced its old one-size iqama system with a skill-based work-permit framework in mid-2025, disrupting wages and contract renewals for Kenyan workers. Officials now frame the diaspora as central to national security, not peripheral.

Why this matters to you. Kenya’s remittance story has quietly shifted from West to Gulf — Saudi Arabia overtook traditional sources in recent years. That means a policy change in Riyadh, not London or New York, now moves the numbers most.

The signal. If you or your family work the Gulf corridor, the variable to watch is permit classification under the new skill-based system, because it determines which jobs renew, at what wage, and how reliably money flows home. CBK is betting the Saudi market fully adjusts this year and volumes recover. Treat that as a forecast, not a guarantee — and if a contract is up for renewal, understand which skill tier it falls under before assuming continuity.

— TWB Newsroom