Nigeria’s foreign direct investment rose to US$720 million in the third quarter of 2025, up from US$90 million in the preceding quarter — the kind of step-change that recalibrates how international investors read the country’s reform trajectory. The figure, confirmed by State House communications and consistent with Q4 follow-up data, anchors the Tinubu administration’s argument that the painful policy adjustments of 2023 and 2024 are now translating into measurable confidence.
The macro picture has hardened in the same direction. GDP growth ran at roughly 4 per cent across 2025 with annualised growth expected to exceed that benchmark for the year. Inflation fell below 15 per cent, foreign reserves stood at US$45.4 billion at end-2025, and the Nigerian Stock Exchange posted a 48.12 per cent gain on the year. The Central Bank trimmed the monetary policy rate to 27 per cent in September from 27.5 per cent, signalling the start of a measured easing cycle. Moody’s, Fitch, and Standard & Poor’s have all reaffirmed positive direction in their most recent reviews.
The vulnerabilities are honest. Public debt sits at over ₦152 trillion (roughly US$100 billion), and debt service against revenue remains the structural constraint on fiscal flexibility. The 2026 Appropriation Bill, presented to the National Assembly in early January, prioritises tax harmonisation, infrastructure investment, and continued FX reform. For the diaspora — particularly the large Nigerian professional and entrepreneurial community in the US, UK, and Canada — the FDI signal is the part that matters most. Capital is returning. Whether the political stability to sustain it holds, particularly after the Tumfa airstrike controversy, is the open question.
Sources: State House Abuja; Central Bank of Nigeria; PwC West Africa Economic Outlook, January–May 2026.