Today's Signal
Signal: A quieter Atlantic is forecast — but the season just opened
NOAA calls for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season. For 16 diaspora communities, below normal is not the same as stay home.
NOAA’s seasonal outlook, announced May 21, puts the odds of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at 55%, with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes expected. The agency holds 70% confidence in those ranges. A developing El Niño and stronger wind shear are the main suppressants, partly offset by warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures. The season runs June 1 to November 30, and the outlook will be refreshed in early August ahead of the September-to-October peak.
For diaspora families, a below-normal forecast is a probability, not a promise — forecasters repeat that it only takes one landfall to define a season. The practical move every June is the same regardless of the headline number: confirm documents, insurance and a family contact plan now, before the first named storm forms, not after.
Sources: NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook (May 21, 2026); CBS News.