Sub-Saharan Inflation Set to Climb to 4.8% as a Gulf Shock and AGOA Deadline Loom
Middle East spillovers and a US trade-preference cliff in September cloud the continent’s outlook.
Median inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise to about 4.8% in 2026, up from 3.7%, largely on spillovers from the Middle East conflict, even as regional growth holds near 4.1%. Fuel importers face the sharpest pressure on currencies and borrowing costs, while oil exporters such as Nigeria see a partial windfall. Layered on top is the anticipated expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act at the end of September, a risk for textile and light-manufacturing exporters including Kenya and Lesotho. The combination tests fiscal discipline across economies already managing heavy debt-service burdens.
Source: World Bank (Africa Economic Update); IMF Regional Economic Outlook; PwC.