Moody's upgrades Trinidad and Tobago outlook to Stable, affirms Ba2 rating

Moody’s has revised Trinidad and Tobago’s sovereign rating outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the Ba2 rating, the Ministry of Finance confirmed. The decision follows the conclusion of the IMF’s 2026 Article IV consultation, which cited renewed investor interest, low inflation, and adequate international reserves as early signals of recovery.

Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo laid the Finance Bill 2026 on June 5 and delivered the Mid-Year Budget Review on June 15. The 2026 fiscal-year outlook now projects real GDP growth between 1.0 and 3.0 percent, supported by recovering natural-gas netback prices and non-energy sector resilience. Public debt and the fiscal deficit remain elevated — the 2025 deficit was estimated at 5.5 percent of GDP — but the upgrade in outlook materially lowers the country’s medium-term borrowing-cost trajectory.

For the diaspora, the upgrade has two practical implications: a stronger TT-dollar environment for inbound remittances and property transactions, and renewed multilateral confidence likely to support diversification investments outside the energy sector — areas where many returning professionals have positioned for the past three years.

Source: Trinidad and Tobago Ministry of Finance media release; Trinidad Express IMF Article IV report; IMF country data.